Economy February 15, 2026

Market Overview

The macro picture is being shaped by an interplay of trade policy, technology-led capital expenditure, cyclical price dynamics and market reallocation away from tariff-pressured sectors. Consumer prices came in slightly cooler than consensus (CPI +2.4% year-over-year in January), providing modest relief on inflation risks and influencing near-term policy expectations [15]. At the same time, persistent tariff policy and trade maneuvering are creating real frictions in goods flows and financing (and redistributing manufacturing activity), while a rapid AI-led investment cycle is raising questions about credit market resilience and asset revaluation [7][14][3].

Key Developments

1) Tariffs and trade flows: A full year into aggressive U.S. tariffs has produced material operational and financial effects — Chinese factories and ports report strong activity despite tariffs, illustrating supply-chain adaptation while importers in the U.S. face higher compliance costs and bond funding gaps (U.S. Customs identified roughly $3.6 billion in surety bond insufficiencies) [23][7]. Retailers exposed to tariffed goods are trimming advertising and margins, contributing to earnings hits in consumer-adjacent platforms, as seen with tariff-driven headwinds to advertising demand [5].

2) Large-scale AI capex and sectoral reallocation: Hyperscalers plan substantial capital spending (announcements suggesting up to $700 billion) to support AI infrastructure, signaling a multi-year capex cycle that will lift demand for data-center construction, semiconductors and power equipment — but also risks overheating segments of credit and commercial real estate tied to legacy uses [14][20]. UBS analysts warn that the AI transformation could be a 'shock to the system' for credit markets, emphasizing speed and scale as amplifiers of credit risk in exposed sectors [3]. Equity markets are already repricing sectors vulnerable to AI disruption, with real estate, trucking and logistics among recent volatile performers [11][21][24].

3) Trade deals and geopolitics: Active trade negotiations are reshaping tariff incidence and bilateral flows. The recent U.S.–Taiwan trade accord (lowering tariffs to 15% and boosting U.S. purchases) will reconfigure some supply-chain economics and export demand for U.S. producers [26]. Similarly, Canadian strategy to court China and Korea for auto manufacturing deals is intended to revive domestic industry but raises potential frictions with U.S. trade policy considerations [13]. Geopolitical competition over strategic infrastructure, such as port control in Panama, adds another layer of trade policy risk that could impede neutral logistics planning [19].

4) Commodities and safe havens: Oil-related flows and opaque destination accounts (e.g., Venezuela oil sales topping $1 billion with changes to deposit arrangements) introduce fiscal and market opacity that can affect energy-linked supply expectations and regional balances [1]. Concurrently, gold's elevated volatility — driven in part by speculative flows from China — highlights cross-border financial spillovers into commodity markets [17].

Financial Impact

- Corporate margins and cash flow: Tariff pass-through and bond funding shortfalls are increasing working capital needs for importers and selectively compressing margins in retail and consumer-facing ad markets [7][5]. - Credit and funding stress: Rapid AI capex combined with sectoral repricing raises the probability of localized credit stress in commercial real estate, transportation lending and smaller banks/ lenders concentrated in these industries [3][14]. - Capital allocation: Large-scale hyperscaler spending and enterprise AI revenue momentum (enterprise AI vendors meeting targets) support demand for technology capex and may tilt equity and fixed-income flows toward suppliers of AI infrastructure [20][14].

Market Outlook

Expect continued cross-asset volatility as markets digest shifting trade policy, CPI trajectory and an accelerated AI investment cycle. Key indicators to watch: monthly CPI prints for policy guidance [15]; U.S. Customs bond shortfall updates and tariff policy signals for liquidity/stress implications [7]; hyperscaler capex announcements and vendor revenue trends for capex sustainability [14][20]; and sector-level credit spreads for early signs of distress in real estate, trucking and logistics [3][21]. Portfolio implications: emphasize stress-testing trade-exposed supply chains, favor balance-sheet resilient exporters and AI-infrastructure suppliers, and monitor short-dated credit-market signals for contagion. Geopolitical and tariff uncertainty argue for nimble positioning and a bias toward liquid hedges until policy direction and capex pacing clarify [13][19][23].