Energy & Transport Market Wrap January 2026

Key Trends

January saw elevated volatility across Energy & Transport as a policy tilt toward gas and nuclear—driven by repeated grid‑stress signals and regulatory rulings on EV charging—reshaped near‑term energy economics. Battery supply constraints and EV charging siting/permit uncertainty slowed electrification momentum, while oil/refined product tightness and shifting LNG flows supported upward price pressure. Airlines underperformed amid weather, financing and fuel‑cost sensitivities; autos showed relative resilience despite tariff noise.

Notable Events

- Multiple regulatory decisions and government statements late in the month signaled support for gas and nuclear capacity additions to relieve transmission and reliability risks. - EV charging rulings and persistent battery shortages tightened deployment timelines for public charging networks. - Severe winter weather and LNG flow adjustments (maintenance/shipments) tightened near‑term gas markets and refined product availability. - Financing strains and cost pressures (fuel, crew, operations) weighed on airline equities.

Performance

Price action was directional and volatile: front‑month crude and refined product spreads firmed (indicative mid‑single‑digit gains month‑on‑month), prompt European gas/LNG markers moved higher – high‑single to low‑double‑digit percentage moves on tight flows – and sector implied volatility rose materially. Airline stocks underperformed transport benchmarks, slipping on average in the mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit range, while EV OEMs held up better than battery supply and miner names.

Outlook

Near term expect continued sensitivity to grid reliability signals, policy headlines and weather. Energy prices likely remain supported absent a pickup in flows; transport equities will track fuel costs, funding conditions and consumer mobility data. Key catalysts: policy updates on generation/charging, LNG cargo flows, and quarterly airline guidance.