Energy & Transport February 13, 2026

Market Overview

Global energy and transport markets are pricing in elevated geopolitical and operational risk. Hedge funds have increased net-long crude positions as Iran-related tensions push risk premia into oil markets [20]. At the same time, U.S. LNG cargo margins remain profitable, supporting export economics despite oversupply concerns in parts of the market [17]. Structural signals remain mixed: major traders (Vitol) now expect oil demand to peak later, in the mid-2030s, which supports a prolonged oil demand window and underwriting for upstream investment [26]. Conversely, signs of supply-side stress—refinery outages from conflict and infrastructure incidents—are already feeding through to refined product markets and transport logistics [22][24]. Policy signals on decarbonization show friction: Denmark’s recent CCS tender revealed weak competitive uptake, implying slower near-term deployment of industrial-scale carbon capture [14].

Key Developments

1) Maritime transit risk: Following recent boarding attempts and heightened U.S.-Iran tensions, the U.S. advised American-flagged vessels to remain "as far as possible" from Iranian territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz, raising transit risk, potential rerouting costs, and insurance premiums for crude and product tankers [4]. 2) Airline fuel logistics: Cuba’s ban on refueling for international carriers affects flight planning and jet fuel logistics in the region, increasing operational complexity and potential fuel supply bottlenecks for carriers operating Western Hemisphere routes [6]. 3) Oil market positioning: Money managers have materially increased bullish oil bets, amplifying price sensitivity to any supply disruptions and geopolitical shocks [20]. 4) Upstream supply concerns: Shell’s reported decline in proven reserves to levels not seen since 2013 highlights potential medium-term supply challenges if exploration and M&A do not plug the gap [16]. 5) Refining and infrastructure disruptions: Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and related losses have materially impacted refining throughput and regional product supplies, while major fields like Tengiz are recovering output after disruptions—both reinforcing uneven supply recovery dynamics [22][24]. 6) Offshore sector consolidation: Transocean’s acquisition of Valaris signals continued consolidation in offshore drilling services, with potential implications for dayrates, capacity utilization, and capital allocation in deepwater supply chains [18]. 7) Transition & policy: Denmark’s CCS tender outcome and commentary on diesel risk and affordability point to policy and demand-side frictions that could delay lower-carbon transitions and leave fleets more reliant on conventional fuels in the near term [14][15]. 8) Energy demand timing: Major traders pushing peak oil demand into the mid-2030s alters capital planning horizons for both producers and transport providers that serve oil and refined product flows [26]. 9) Transport security incidents: Sabotage of rail during a high-profile event underscores ongoing vulnerability in rail freight infrastructure that can disrupt inland product and bulk transport [29].

Financial Impact

Near term, higher freight and insurance costs for tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz would raise delivered crude costs and could widen refining margins where product availability tightens [4][20]. LNG exporters with robust USGC margins benefit from continued arbitrage into Europe and Asia, supporting earnings for exporters and FIDs on marginal projects [17]. Offshore services may see improved valuations from consolidation-driven efficiency (Transocean/Valaris), though integration risks remain [18]. Lower reserve metrics for majors (Shell) put upward pressure on long-run oil prices and favor cash-generative upstream players, while refinery strikes and field outages elevate refining capex and repair costs, squeezing regional supply [16][22][24]. Airline operators facing fuel supply constraints in Cuba will incur route and fuel procurement costs that erode margins on affected routes [6]. Broader consumer energy affordability concerns—rising power bills despite lower oil—could spur political responses affecting regulated utilities and fuel taxation [21].

Market Outlook

Expect heightened price volatility driven by geopolitical flashpoints and flow disruptions; investors should anticipate elevated risk premia in crude and refined product markets for the coming quarters [20][22]. LNG markets look structurally supported on margins, keeping export volumes attractive despite near-term oversupply pockets [17]. Transition technologies (CCS) require stronger policy and commercial signals to scale; weak early tender outcomes in Denmark caution against assuming rapid CCS deployment will materially offset fossil demand in the near term [14]. Operational resilience in transport—shipping route management, refinery security, and rail protection—will be key value drivers for companies servicing energy flows. Strategically, portfolios should overweight assets with high cash margins (LNG exporters, integrated refiners with feedstock flexibility) and underweight assets exposed to reserve shortfalls without clear growth plans, while monitoring upstream M&A, offshore consolidation, and policy developments that can materially reshape supply dynamics over the next 2–5 years [16][18][26].